Updated: 22 February 2025
Toru Nakagawa (OGU, WTSP Project Leader) "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
http://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
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Hello, how are you?
I uploaded the following two articles yesterday in my website:
https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
[1] My paper presented at EPSJ (Earthquake Prediction Society
of Japan) conference. (held on Dec. 21-22, 2024)
In Japanese: paper, slides, video (on Dec. 28, 2024)
In English: paper (on Feb. 21, 2025)
[2] My LinkedIn article introducing my ETRIA presentation.
In English: LinkedIn article (on Jan. 17, 2025)
In English: in my website (on Feb. 22, 2024)
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[1] Development of Earthquake Prediction Research - Toward
Practical Application (Official Earthquake Prediction Warning)
Toru Nakagawa, EPSJ Conference, Dec. 22, 2024
(I wrote this paper 3 months later than the ETRIA paper.
It is concise (max 6 pages), clearer, and advanced (presented
toward EPSJ members, devoted to Earthquake Prediction Research.)
Abstract:
Research on Earthquake Prediction has long been in a state of
groping in the dark, but we now see a clear ray of light emerging since these 2 years.
Tsutsui observed the electric field deep underground to clearly
capture its fluctuations immediately before and after an earthquake,
and Kamiyama et al. analyzed satellite data on crustal deformation
over time to detect anomalous variations several years to several
months before an earthquake.
Based on these clues, we discuss here ways to develop Earthquake
Prediction Research to the practical application stage.
In the practical application stage, public organizations will
issue Earthquake Prediction notices (1 year to 1 month in advance),
warnings (10 days to 1 day in advance), and emergency warnings
(2 hours to 10 minutes in advance) so that people and society
can take measures to minimize earthquake damage.
To achieve this goal, we will proceed in five stages, i.e.,
development/realization of Earthquake Prediction methods (Stage 1),
verification (Stage 2), large-scale deployment (Stage 3),
establishment of technical systems (Stage 4), and public
operation (Stage 5), while clarifying the tasks for each stage.
At present, we are just entering Stage 2, where several research
groups are working together to validate breakthrough methods.
To manage such research projects, we should better establish
a General Incorporated Foundation as an offshoot of EPSJ.
In Stage 3, a project funded by KAKENHI (the Grant-in-Aid for
Scientific Research) should play the main role, while
in Stage 4, a national project will play the main role.
Assuming that 5 years are needed for each stage, it will take
20 years to achieve the final stage of public operation.
We are determined to move forward with such a great vision
and will.
(Slides in English will appear some time later.)
[2] Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy:
(6) Paper, Slides, and Video Presented at the ETRIA TRAI
2024 (Nov. 6-8, Romania) Toru Nakagawa, LinkedIn article, Jan. 17, 2025
(This LinkedIn article introduces my ETRIA presentation, and lists the series of my LinkedIn articles (1) to (5).)
Let's work Together! Connected !!
Best wishes,
Toru
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Toru Nakagawa, Dr., Professor Emeritus, Osaka Gakuin University
E-mail: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp [Main email address. For receiving.]
toru.nakagawa@jcom.home.ne.jp [For sending (& receiving)]
nakagawa.ogu@gmail.com [For sending Update Announcements] Editor of the "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/">URL:https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
Project Leader of World TRIZ-related Sites Project (WTSP) Director of CrePS Institute:
Publication of "TRIZ Practices and Benefits" book series (in Japanese)
3-1-13 Eirakudai, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0086, Japan.
Phone & FAX: +81-4-7167-7403
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- Details
- Category: TRIZ News
Updated: 7 October 2024
Toru Nakagawa (OGU, WTSP Project Leader) "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
http://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
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Hello, how are you?
Subject:
I uploaded the following articles on Nov. 13 and 26 to my website:
https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
[1] On the 26th Anniversary of "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
Toru Nakagawa (Nov. 13, 2024)
[2] Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy
Toru Nakagawa, Presented at ETRIA TFC TRAI 2024, (Nov. 26, 2024)
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[1] On the 26th Anniversary of "TRIZ Home Page in Japan": Toru Nakagawa
This Website "TRIZ Home in Japan" celebrated its 26th Anniversary on Nov. 1.
It serves as an open forum for information exchange for better understanding and usage of Creative Problem Solving Methodologies.
I am very grateful to you all, including authors, co-authors, translators, and readers in Japan and worldwide, for your continuing support.
The World TRIZ-related Site Project (WTSP) posted the Catalog
manuscripts contributed from Taiwan and South Korea since last Nov.,
but has been inactive since June of this year, unfortunately.
For the policy and full history of the WTSP project activities,
please refer to the WTSP project index page.
The full set of documents created by WTSP is publicly available
through the World WTSP Catalog Top Page (and for further details,
the World TRIZ Site Catalogs (A), the World Around-TRIZ Site Catalogs
(C)).
The latest report of this project is the paper and presentation video
at the ETRIA TFC 2023.
The parts still incomplete are the catalogs of TRIZ sites in major
TRIZ countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, etc.).
I hope that one day the World TRIZ-related Site Catalogs will be
completed with these by the contribution of each country catalog.
Believing that research into Short-term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction
is important for Japan (and the world), I joined the Earthquake
Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) in early 2015.
At the end of 2022, I learned that "a major clue to earthquake
prediction (EQP) had been obtained", and I began to support EQP
research within EPSJ.
On this website, I have built an index page for "Earthquake Prediction
Research and Disaster Prevention (Mitigation)" (Jun. 2023).
I have made a presentation at EPSJ (Dec. 2023), written a series of
introductory articles on LinkedIn (Apr. 2024 -), made presentations
at Japan TRIZ Symposium (Aug.. 202４) and the ETRIA TFC-TRAI
(under construction) (Nov. 2024).
The Kamiyama method and the Tsutsui method have each achieved
excellent results, we should start research projects within EPSJ by
multiple research groups to confirm the effectiveness of each method.
I am going to devote myself to supporting and promoting the EQP research
toward practical/official application, with the hope of reducing
the damage caused by earthquakes in Japan (and the world), hopefully in 20 years.
I will use this "TRIZ Home Page in Japan" for this purpose as well
as the TRIZ method and the WTSP project.
I ask for your understanding and support.
[2] Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy
Toru Nakagawa, Presented at ETRIA TFC TRAI 2024 Conference,
Nov. 6-8, 2024, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
In this webpage, documents are shown in the following order:
Abstract & Keywords(.html);
Slides with annotation (.html), Slides (.pdf, 10 slides, 2.26 MB);
Video presentation (.mp4, 16m14s, 17.6 MB);
Paper(.html), Paper (.pdf, 18 pages, 7.1 MB);
Paper published (.pdf).
(The page in Japanese is not ready yet.)
Table of Contents of the paper:
1. Introduction
1.1 Background: Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction Research in Japan
1.2 Strategy and Structure of the Present Paper
2. EQ Prediction Research: Problem and the Solution Goal
2.1 EQ Research, EQ Prediction Research, and EQ Disaster Mitigation
2.2 Defining the Problem and the Ultimate Goal of Possible Solutions
3. Approaches to EQ Prediction: Criteria and Selection of EQ Precursor Phenomena
3.1 Requirements for EQ Precursor Phenomena Valid for Short-term EQ Prediction
3.2 Selection of Promising Precursor Phenomena and Methods
4. Three Promising EQ Precursor Observation Methods
4.1 Observation of Crustal Strain Using GNSS Satellite Data (M. Kamiyama et al. [3])
4.2 Observing the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the Ionosphere
with GNSS Satellites (K. Heki [4])
4.3 Observing the Underground Electric Field (Minoru Tsutsui [1])
5. Proposal for a Project to Establish an Imminent EQ Prediction Method
based on the Tsutsui Method
6. Concluding Remarks
References
PS: I was planning to make a trip to Romania, but I had to cancel
the trip. As the world situations in Ukraine and in Palestine
were getting severe more and more, I found my health would not
allow me to take quick action in any emergency case.
I submitted my presentation video on October 31st, and the
conference organizer kindly played it for me during the session,
to my thanks.
If you have any comments or questions, please contact me via email.
Here I attach two slides:
Title (with Photos of the two EQs, in 1995 and 2011)
Expected Stages of the EQP Research (2 methods have passed
the Stage (1) and should be promoted to Stage(2) now and
further to the Stage (5), hopefully in 20 years!!)
Best wishes,
Toru
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Toru Nakagawa, Dr., Professor Emeritus, Osaka Gakuin University
E-mail: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp [Main email address. For receiving.]
toru.nakagawa@jcom.home.ne.jp [For sending (& receiving)]
nakagawa.ogu@gmail.com [For sending Update Announcements]
Editor of the "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
URL:https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
- Details
- Category: TRIZ News