Updated: 7 October 2024
Toru Nakagawa (OGU, WTSP Project Leader) "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
http://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
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Hello, how are you?
Subject:
I uploaded the following articles on Nov. 13 and 26 to my website:
https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
[1] On the 26th Anniversary of "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
Toru Nakagawa (Nov. 13, 2024)
[2] Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy
Toru Nakagawa, Presented at ETRIA TFC TRAI 2024, (Nov. 26, 2024)
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[1] On the 26th Anniversary of "TRIZ Home Page in Japan": Toru Nakagawa
This Website "TRIZ Home in Japan" celebrated its 26th Anniversary on Nov. 1.
It serves as an open forum for information exchange for better understanding and usage of Creative Problem Solving Methodologies.
I am very grateful to you all, including authors, co-authors, translators, and readers in Japan and worldwide, for your continuing support.
The World TRIZ-related Site Project (WTSP) posted the Catalog
manuscripts contributed from Taiwan and South Korea since last Nov.,
but has been inactive since June of this year, unfortunately.
For the policy and full history of the WTSP project activities,
please refer to the WTSP project index page.
The full set of documents created by WTSP is publicly available
through the World WTSP Catalog Top Page (and for further details,
the World TRIZ Site Catalogs (A), the World Around-TRIZ Site Catalogs
(C)).
The latest report of this project is the paper and presentation video
at the ETRIA TFC 2023.
The parts still incomplete are the catalogs of TRIZ sites in major
TRIZ countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, etc.).
I hope that one day the World TRIZ-related Site Catalogs will be
completed with these by the contribution of each country catalog.
Believing that research into Short-term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction
is important for Japan (and the world), I joined the Earthquake
Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) in early 2015.
At the end of 2022, I learned that "a major clue to earthquake
prediction (EQP) had been obtained", and I began to support EQP
research within EPSJ.
On this website, I have built an index page for "Earthquake Prediction
Research and Disaster Prevention (Mitigation)" (Jun. 2023).
I have made a presentation at EPSJ (Dec. 2023), written a series of
introductory articles on LinkedIn (Apr. 2024 -), made presentations
at Japan TRIZ Symposium (Aug.. 202４) and the ETRIA TFC-TRAI
(under construction) (Nov. 2024).
The Kamiyama method and the Tsutsui method have each achieved
excellent results, we should start research projects within EPSJ by
multiple research groups to confirm the effectiveness of each method.
I am going to devote myself to supporting and promoting the EQP research
toward practical/official application, with the hope of reducing
the damage caused by earthquakes in Japan (and the world), hopefully in 20 years.
I will use this "TRIZ Home Page in Japan" for this purpose as well
as the TRIZ method and the WTSP project.
I ask for your understanding and support.
[2] Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy
Toru Nakagawa, Presented at ETRIA TFC TRAI 2024 Conference,
Nov. 6-8, 2024, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
In this webpage, documents are shown in the following order:
Abstract & Keywords(.html);
Slides with annotation (.html), Slides (.pdf, 10 slides, 2.26 MB);
Video presentation (.mp4, 16m14s, 17.6 MB);
Paper(.html), Paper (.pdf, 18 pages, 7.1 MB);
Paper published (.pdf).
(The page in Japanese is not ready yet.)
Table of Contents of the paper:
1. Introduction
1.1 Background: Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction Research in Japan
1.2 Strategy and Structure of the Present Paper
2. EQ Prediction Research: Problem and the Solution Goal
2.1 EQ Research, EQ Prediction Research, and EQ Disaster Mitigation
2.2 Defining the Problem and the Ultimate Goal of Possible Solutions
3. Approaches to EQ Prediction: Criteria and Selection of EQ Precursor Phenomena
3.1 Requirements for EQ Precursor Phenomena Valid for Short-term EQ Prediction
3.2 Selection of Promising Precursor Phenomena and Methods
4. Three Promising EQ Precursor Observation Methods
4.1 Observation of Crustal Strain Using GNSS Satellite Data (M. Kamiyama et al. [3])
4.2 Observing the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the Ionosphere
with GNSS Satellites (K. Heki [4])
4.3 Observing the Underground Electric Field (Minoru Tsutsui [1])
5. Proposal for a Project to Establish an Imminent EQ Prediction Method
based on the Tsutsui Method
6. Concluding Remarks
References
PS: I was planning to make a trip to Romania, but I had to cancel
the trip. As the world situations in Ukraine and in Palestine
were getting severe more and more, I found my health would not
allow me to take quick action in any emergency case.
I submitted my presentation video on October 31st, and the
conference organizer kindly played it for me during the session,
to my thanks.
If you have any comments or questions, please contact me via email.
Here I attach two slides:
Title (with Photos of the two EQs, in 1995 and 2011)
Expected Stages of the EQP Research (2 methods have passed
the Stage (1) and should be promoted to Stage(2) now and
further to the Stage (5), hopefully in 20 years!!)
Best wishes,
Toru
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Toru Nakagawa, Dr., Professor Emeritus, Osaka Gakuin University
E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [Main email address. For receiving.]
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [For sending (& receiving)]
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Editor of the "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
URL:https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
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Updated: 7 October 2024
Toru Nakagawa (OGU, WTSP Project Leader) "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
http://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
-----------------------------------------------
Hello, how are you?
Subject:
"Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy:
(5) Kamiyama Method: Observing Crustal Strains using GNSS Data
(Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, Oct. 3, 2024) "TRIZ Home Page in Japan" in English (Oct. 7, 2024)
in Japanese (Oct. 7, 2024)
Please see the figure, attached here.
Makoto Kamiyama (Professor Emeritus, Tohoku Institute of Technology)
et al. presented a paper at the EPSJ (Earthquake Prediction
Society of Japan) Conference in Dec. 2023.
They use the precise location data of about 1300 reference points
throughout Japan, which are measured and updated daily by the
Geospatial Information Authority of Japan using the DNSS satellite.
Kamiyama et al. use the triangular FEM mesh to derive the
maximum shear strain and the area strain (dilatation) coefficients
for each triangular area.
Detailed data and their analysis are reported for Hokkaido Iburi
East EQ (Sept. 6, 2018, MJ 6.5).
The dilatation coefficients of four triangle areas around the
epicenter is plotted daily against the time axis from 2011 to 2023.
The four areas initially shrank slowly at the same rate,
then at the EQ two areas suddenly expanded, and
after the EQ all four areas shrank slowly again as before.
Zooming in to the year 2018, abnormal variations of the
dilatation coefficients suddenly appear 3 months before the EQ.
Two areas vary positively while two others vary negatively;
but, regardless of the direction, the variation patterns are very similar.
The variation started to increase 3 months before the EQ,
reached its peak, and slowly decreased in an unstable manner,
then changed suddenly at the EQ, and disappeared a few days after the EQ
Similar abnormal pre-EQ variations were observed in all 3 EQs in the paper.
Using these precursors, we can estimate
the seismic region and magnitude of the coming EQ on the basis
of the number and extent of areas showing such abnormal variations.
As for the timing of the coming EQ, we learn the cases of 3 years to 3 months,
but have not yet found any further indicators of the occurrence of EQs.
The Kamiyama Method is now considered the most useful and
promising for Short-term EQ Prediction.
We should observe and analyze many more EQs to refine the method.
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We sincerely hope your understanding and support of our
approach to the Earthquake Prediction Research.
Please contribute your comments, thoughts, etc.
I will post them in our EQP Forum on my website.
Let's work Together! Connected !!
Best wishes,
Toru
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Toru Nakagawa, Dr., Professor Emeritus, Osaka Gakuin University
E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [Main email address. For receiving.]
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [For sending (& receiving)]
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [For sending Update Announcements] Editor of the "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/">URL:https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
Project Leader of World TRIZ-related Sites Project (WTSP) Director of CrePS Institute:
Publication of "TRIZ Practices and Benefits" book series (in Japanese)
3-1-13 Eirakudai, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0086, Japan.
Phone & FAX: +81-4-7167-7403
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